Citibank chairman Suresh Maharaj speaks with Finance Minister Winston Dookeran at the handover of the bank's investment guide at Chaud Restaurant, Port of Spain on January 16. —Photo: Ishmael Salandy 'Sea of change' in global economyCitibank (Trinidad & Tobago) chairman Suresh Maharaj last month handed over the 2011-2012 investment guide produced by the bank to Finance Minister Winston Dookeran. The guide highlights key information on Trinidad and Tobago, such as the economy, services, infrastructure, and the opportunities for investment. At a ceremonial handover hosted by the bank at Chaud Restaurant in Port of Spain, Maharaj commented on what he described as the "sea of change we are witnessing in the global economy" and what countries like Trinidad and Tobago needed to do to effectively compete for business. Following is an excerpt of Maharaj's presentation:
First of all, the emerging and developed countries are gradually decoupling from one another. Emerging markets growth no longer depends on growth in developed economies and sometimes even continues strongly when developed markets are in recession. Second, emerging markets are growing much faster. They suffered less from the Great recession and recovered more quickly, Today China is back near ten per cent annually and India is close to eight per cent, for instance. I don't need to tell you how bad the growth figures are right now for the developed world. The US economy grew less than half a per cent in the first quarter of 2011 and just above one per cent in the second. The EU's numbers are even worse and the Japanese economy has actually shrunk for the past three quarters of 2011.The developed world is grappling with serious debt problems - both as a consequence of over-borrowing before the crash and long-term liabilities in popular pension, health care and other programmes. It is the general consensus that the developed nations will never again grow at anywhere near the clip that has become routine in the developing world. Research conducted by us has concluded that China and India will be the world's largest economies by around 2030. Such disparities would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. The developed markets drove world growth and the emerging markets hitched a ride. Not anymore. Now they speed off on their own. Third, the decoupling of the two economic zones is not only largely complete already, it is likely to be permanent. The biggest driver of this decoupling is the maturation of emerging markets and the consequent rise of intra-EM trade and capital flows. This is one of the most important economic trends of our time – maybe the most important. Trade within the emerging markets has risen sharply from six per cent of total world trade to 13 per cent between 1995 and 2009. The advanced economies' share of global trade is now 65 per cent, down from 79 per cent in 1995 and this will continue. Fourth, the growing emerging market consumer base has the power to drive global GDP. Around the globe, millions of people rise above poverty and enter the middle class every year - by one estimate, some 70 million in 2009 alone. According to another estimate, by 2020, three-quarters of incremental consumer spending will come from emerging markets. If that estimate is correct, then by that year consumer spending in Asia will overtake North America to become the world's largest consumer bloc. To highlight the changes that have taken place, The Wall Street Journal ran an article last (month) headed "Lessons in Humility", and I quote: "Who could have imagined that following the worst of the 1990s Asian financial crisis that in November 2011 the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, would tell cadets at the US Military Academy at West Point: "We can learn from the example of emerging nations that took the tough decisions necessary to emerge from past crises stronger, more competitive and better positioned ... " "Or that the sovereign debt of the US, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Japan would be downgraded while debt in Angola, Brazil, Bulgaria, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Peru would be upgraded." So that ladies and gentlemen, the point I want to leave you with is that a lot of the future growth is in the emerging markets and that Trinidad and Tobago is one of the emerging market countries that have much potential for growth. So, what are the factors that investors consider when they make a decision to invest in a country? Some of these are political stability with a democratic elected government • Economic stability and a well developed, domestic economy easily accessible to international companies • A pro-business government who understands the development opportunities in finance, and other sectors of the economy • An educated, efficient, and skilled labour force • Predictable legal system, easily enforced • Efficient public infrastructure, such as transport, schools, and healthcare • Adequate technological capacity and country infrastructure From my vantage point where I manage fourteen countries where we have a physical presence for Citi, stretching from Bahamas to Ecuador, I would easily confirm that Trinidad & Tobago has most of the above and is one of the most attractive for investment in my region. Ladies and gentlemen, there is a simple fact that CAPITAL GOES WHERE IT IS WELCOMED AND REMAINS WHERE IT IS WELL TREATED. Within Citi, I compete for capital with the 110 countries we operate. Similarly all countries around the world are competing for capital and new investments so it is important that the Government and the private sector continue to play a key role in making Trinidad and Tobago competitively attractive. |
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