T&T equities ahead of the pack
This week we at Bourse will provide a recap of the local and regional equity market for the nine-months ending 30th September 2013 (the period) and take a look at what’s on the horizon for the market and investors.
Regionally, Trinidad and Tobago’s equity market continued to outperform relative to its peers. Much of this performance has been driven by a relatively stable corporate performance, as well as excess liquidity and its resultant low-interest rate environment. Compared to the 10-year point on the TTD Government Securities Yield Curve of 2.60 per cent, the Trinidad & Tobago Composite Index (TTCI) offers an estimated trailing twelve month (TTM) dividend yield of 3.02 per cent. This return, when added to potential for capital appreciation, would make equity investments even more attractive to the longer-term investor. Both the TTCI and the All Trinidad & Tobago Index continued on an upward trend from the first half of 2013, ending the first nine-month period with year to date (YTD) returns of 7.4 per cent and 12.1 per cent respectively. In USD equivalent, both indices increased 7.2 per cent and 11.9 per cent (Exhibit 1).
T&T Equity Review
Over the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange (TTSE), total volume of shares traded was 93.6m, with a total value of TT$1.2b. Trinidad Cement Limited was the overall volume leader, comprising of 24.7 per cent of total market volume but only 2.5 per cent of overall market value.
For the period, a volume of 73.7m shares crossed the floor. This represents an 87.2 per cent increase in traded volume when compared to the 39.3m shares that traded in the comparative period last year. The value of shares traded increased 44.6 per cent from $574.4m to $830.8m, largely due to the 2.7 million Neal and Massy Limited (NML) shares and the 2.1 million ANSA McAl (AMCL) shares that crossed floor.
Volume Leaders (Ordinary Shares)
Taking the top spot in volume leaders was TCL, accounting for 31.3 per cent of traded volume with 23m shares crossing the board. Jamaica Money Market Brokers (JMMB) followed, registering a volume of 10.9m or 14.8 per cent of the total volume traded. Sagicor Financial Corporation (SFC) and National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited (NCBJ) ensued with approximately 9.3m shares and 3.7m being traded respectively or 12.6 per cent and 5.0 per cent of total volume. Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) closed off the top five with a volume of 2.9m or 3.9 per cent.
Value Leaders (Ordinary Shares)
Turning to transaction activity by value, NML led the board with $159.3m in value traded, followed by ANSA McAl Limited (AMCL) with $140.9m. Newcomer First Citizens Bank Limited (FIRST) followed with $80.1m while Scotiabank Limited (SBTT) and Republic Bank Limited (RBL) recorded traded values of $74.5m and $71.0m respectively. The top 5 securities by traded value constituted 63.9 per cent of total value traded.
Mutual Fund Shares
For the period, 19.9m shares of Clico Investment Fund (CIF) were traded, at a total value of $428.6m. CIF closed the period at a price of $21.57, 13.8 per cent lower than its opening price of $25 on January 7th, and 6.2 per cent lower than its half year (HY) 2013 closing price of $23.00. Relative to the total market which will include ordinary shares, CIF was second in terms of traded volumes, comprising 21.3 per cent of total market volume. In terms of value traded, it led the market with 34.2 per cent of value traded.
Advances outpaced declines for the period. Of the 29 ordinary shares listed on the first tier there were 18 advancers and 11 declines.
Leading the advances for Q3 2013 was FIRST, which gained 59.1 per cent since its listing date on 16th September 2013. TCL and National Flour Mills Limited (NFM) followed advancing 48.3 per cent and 43.3 per cent respectively. West Indian Tobacco Company Ltd (WCO) appreciated 38.8 per cent while Neal and Massy (NML) gained 19.4 per cent and Unilever Caribbean Ltd (UCL) increased 17.7 per cent (Exhibit 2).
For the period, 11 stocks declined. Of the eleven declining stocks, five were locally listed with the balance being cross-listed. LJ Williams experienced the most pronounced decline, slipping 27 per cent. Cross-listed National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited (NCBJ) followed, retreating 21.5 per cent whilst GHL fell 18.9 per cent. Jamaican Scotia Investments Jamaica Ltd (SIJL) and Barbadian CIBC First Caribbean International Bank lost 13.5 per cent and 10.0 per cent respectively (Exhibit 3).
On 15th July, 2013 First Citizens Bank launched the largest Initial Public Offering (IPO) of shares in the history of the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange. At a price of $22.00 per share, 48.5m shares were offered to the public with a market value of approximately $1.1b. The IPO was substantially oversubscribed and was listed on 16th September 2013, trading under the ticker FIRST.
The Finance Minister, in reading the National Budget, signalled the possibility that an IPO of National Gas Company’s 39 per cent shareholding in Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited (PPGPL) could be offered to the public. As there are currently no energy listings on the Exchange, investors will be keeping a keen eye and ear out for further developments on this listing.
Jamaican Equity Market
In the Jamaican market, the country’s benchmark, the JSE Market Index ended the period down 8.3 per cent while the Jamaica Composite Index was down 7.4 per cent. In USD equivalent, the indices fell 17.7 per cent and 16.9 per cent respectively.
On the JSE, declines outnumbered advances. Of the 33 stocks listed on the first tier, there were 19 declines, 12 advances and two were unchanged. Grace Kennedy (GK) experienced a 7.98 per cent increase for the period.
Sagicor Investments Jamaica Limited (S) retreated 25.25 per cent, while Sagicor Life Jamaica Limited (SLJ) and Trinidad Cement Limited (TCL) both slipped 14.9 per cent.
The Jamaican financial market also welcomed a new listing in July with the IPO of the Jamaica Stock Exchange Limited (JSE) to the market value tune of JMD107.8m. The invitation was for the subscription and sale of 38.25 million shares, of which 28.05 million were newly issued for subscription and 10.2 million were existing shares. The IPO priced at JMD2.85 closed a day before the deadline for subscriptions as it was oversubscribed by 41 per cent.
Barbados Equity Market
The Barbados stock market ended the period flat, as the BSE Composite Index was up 1 per cent while the BSE Local Index was down 3.3 per cent.
On the Barbados Stock Exchange (BSE), the number of declines outnumbered advances. Of the 21 listed companies there were 8 declines, 5 advances and 8 unchanged. Leading the advancers, Neal and Massy Holdings Limited climbed 22.8 per cent while Sagicor Financial Corporation fell 11.2 per cent.
For more information, investors can call Bourse at 628-9100 or visit us at any one of our offices. Further information is also available on Bourse’s website at www.bourseinvestment.com and Bourse Securities Limited Facebook page.