I know how much the Minister of National Security likes to quote statistics at the end of the year.

The honourable Minister will undoubtedly quote the fine statistic that murders in Trinidad and Tobago are down roughly 7-8 per cent from last year: that is, if we take the figure as it stands right now, you know, the 508 victims of "collateral damage". Wow! Almost a 10 per cent drop in the number of these heinous acts against our fellow man. Must be progress! Pat yourself on the back Mr Joseph. Hold on a second though.

I myself have done some simple statistics. According to the figures gleaned from http://www.ttcrime.com (I went here since I was hard-pressed to find any statistics from the Ministry of National Security website), if we are to compare the figure the year the PNM government came into power, 2001, where 151 souls were lost to murder, to this year's figure, then there has been a 3.4 fold increase in the number of annual murders under the PNM.

Want some more statistics? If we plot murders from 1994 to present in excel, and then add a trendline, there is a significant increasing trend in the annual murder number over time. How significant? Well, the polynomial trendline which best fits the actual data reveals an R2 of 0.9671. The highest this value can be for a positive correlation between murders and time is 1.

This relationship is significant at the 0.01 alpha level, and also suggests that unless something is done to curb this trend, then this may continue.

Extrapolating this trend line would reveal that there is the potential for murders in Trinidad and Tobago to reach the staggering number of close to 900 by the end of 2012. Why should we consider this a possibility? When only 20 of 550 murders are being solved in 2008 (less than 4 per cent), why should we think otherwise? How's that for statistics Mr. Joseph? All I'm doing is some statistics, just like you. Now, if you would kindly provide me with the number of so called crime plans which have been proposed over the years then I can look at the relationship between the number of crimes and the number of crime plans put forth by your administration.

My bet is that there is a significant positive relationship between the number of crimes, and the number of crime plans you put forth. This would imply that, despite your best efforts (and they must be your best efforts, otherwise you wouldn't be our Minister of National Security), you are failing us.

Please, don't try to fool us with your meaningless statistics, Minister Joseph, you are insulting our intelligence. I pray I am wrong regarding the forcasted figures. It says on your profile that "Martin R Joseph is a member of the People's National Movement with a background in management". I pray that you somehow develop a modicum of competency with regards to the management of the criminals in our country. 

I pray for my country that the people perpetrating these acts will somehow develop a conscience. You and the Prime Minister pray for us to be patient.

Ashnaff

Maracas Valley